SHFE tin prices traded sideways at a high level during the night session, with mediocre performance in the spot market [SMM tin morning news]

Jul 30, 2025 08:42

Source:SMM

SHFE tin prices remained high and stable during the night session, while the spot market showed mediocre performance [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an wrote in Study Times that efforts should be made to support the expansion of domestic demand with a focus on promoting consumption, further unleashing the potential of the domestic market. The policy system supporting service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism should be continuously improved. The duty-free shop policy should be refined to promote the healthy and orderly development of the duty-free commodity retail business. Fiscal and financial policies should be coordinated and linked, and fiscal interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans in key areas and loans for service industry operators should be introduced and implemented to better meet consumption demands. The construction of projects under the "two major national strategies and building up security capacity in key areas" should be continuously advanced. Support should be provided to accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, implement urban renewal initiatives, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market. (2) Tariffs: ① Trump: If a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 10 days, tariffs will be imposed on Russia. There is no concern about oil prices if sanctions are imposed on Russia. ② US Secretary of Commerce: Trump will announce the pharmaceutical industry policy within the next two weeks. ③ It is reported that the EU intends to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US trade agreement. ④ Mexican President: Mexico aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US this week. ⑤ It is reported that India is expected to reach a trade agreement with the US in September or October, preparing to cope with the 20% to 25% tariffs that the US may impose on it. ⑥ Trump: India may face 20% to 25% tariffs, but the agreement has not yet been finalised.

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 30, 2025:

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-range consolidation, closing at 268,000 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Finance Minister Lan Fo'an stated in a Learning Times article that efforts will focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand and further unleash market potential. Policies supporting service consumption in elderly/childcare, culture, and tourism will be continuously refined. Duty-free shop policies will be improved to promote healthy development of duty-free retail. Fiscal-financial policy coordination will be strengthened through implementing targeted personal consumption loan subsidies and service sector operating loan interest discounts to better meet consumption demand. Construction of projects implementing major national strategies and building up security capacity in key areas will advance steadily. Support will be given to establish new real estate development models and urban renewal initiatives for sustained healthy market growth. (2) Tariffs—①Trump: Additional tariffs will be imposed on Russia unless Ukraine ceasefire is reached within 10 days. Oil price concerns dismissed even with sanctions. ②US Commerce Secretary: Trump to announce pharmaceutical industry policies within two weeks. ③EU plans to purchase 40 billion euros worth of AI chips in US trade deal. ④Mexican President: Aims to reach tariff agreement with US this week. ⑤India expected to finalize trade deal with US by September/October, preparing for potential 20%-25% US tariffs. ⑥Trump: India may face 20%-25% tariffs, though deal remains unconfirmed.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tightening tin ore supply in major production areas like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand: PV sector: East China tin bar orders declined post-installation rush, with lower operating rates at some producers. Electronics: South China end-users entered off-season amid high prices, maintaining only essential orders with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Other sectors: Stable demand in tinplate and chemical applications without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Tin ingot spot market showed mediocre performance, with most traders reporting around 10 mt transactions and few exceeding one truckload. Downstream enterprises remained cautious, adopting small-volume frequent purchasing strategies.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise independent judgment and not treat this as a substitute for their own decision-making. SMM bears no responsibility for client decisions.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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SHFE tin prices traded sideways at a high level during the night session, with mediocre performance in the spot market [SMM tin morning news]

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